Is Aviator’s Multiplier Value Random

If you were on Earth and got presented with a box full of numbered balls(from 1x to 300x) and told to pick a ball at random, you would hardly pick the ball numbered 1x most of the time. This is because the probability of picking the ball numbered 1x is ¹/₃₀₀ . As you can imagine, the chances are very slim.

In Aviator’s world, the selection appears skewed to have 1x being mostly the final result out of the possible 1,000x – 7,000x . A statistical impossibility which is then described as Provably Fair.

I was not able to find game round history results that go beyond 60 games. The screenshots above were spread out across different times of the day.

What is Provably Fair?

Following their definition, it is a cryptographic technology by the operator that guarantees “100%” fairness of game results. According to them, no third party can interfere in the game process. While this may be true, third parties are prevented from interfering with the game process. It doesn’t remove the possibility of the operator influencing the game process.

Reading the description of how the gameplay is made to be fair, the technical verbiage creates an impression of sophisticated security that would convince many players that the system is trustworthy.

Steps Used In Coming Up With The Outcome Of Every Game

1. The operator generates the server seed (a random 16-character string) and publishes its SHA256 hash.
2. The first 3 betters/gamblers client seeds are collected to form the client seed.
3. The player seed and the server seed is combined then used to generate a hashed SHA512 seed.
4. The hash is mapped to a game outcome for example the “Fly away” multiplier value.
5. After the round, the operator reveals the server seed(without the hash). Players can verify the hash matches the pre-announced one and recompute the outcome to confirm fairness.

Ways In Which The Game Can Be Gamed

• The operator could theoretically delay revealing their server seed until after seeing the client seeds from the first three bettors that would give the desired result. The delay is in time durations humans can’t perceive(nanoseconds)
• The operator could generate multiple server seeds until finding one that produces a favorable outcome when combined with the known client seeds.
• While the server seed is supposedly random, without proper auditing, the operator could use a biased random number generator.
• Each game employs different mathematical formulas to convert the SHA512 hash to outcomes, yet these formulas remain undisclosed. Players must simply trust the operator’s claims of fair conversion.
• The cryptographic elements (SHA256 and SHA512 hashes) project an aura of security and fairness, particularly to those unfamiliar with cryptography. However, the crucial vulnerability lies in how these hashes are translated into actual game outcomes.

Conclusion

• It is unlikely that the “Fly away” multiplier value is random, we have seen that the chances of getting 1x is more than 47%.
• Why complicate the process of getting a random result that is fair and then subject the same to “slightly different mathematics for generating result – to match game requirements” when there are much easier way?. A skeptic could say that this could be used to have a predetermined result.
• “Transparency” is not equal to Fairness. Players can verify that their inputs were included in the calculation, but this verification is largely symbolic if they can’t influence the outcome distribution.